USD/CAD stayed in range below 1.3104 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3102/4 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2951. Further rise should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3133) and above. On the downside, break of 1.2951 will resume larger decline to 100% projection of 1.3564 to 1.3016 from 1.3327 at 1.2779 next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.2673. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2673 will put focus on 1.2061 low.
In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) in in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.