USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rise from 104.45 resumed by breaking 109.72 resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next. On the downside, , break of 109.79 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 108.98).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.