USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook (Update)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 109.55; (R1) 110.49; More..

USD/JPY’s sharp decline and break of 108.27 support suggests that whole rise from 104.45 has completed with three waves up to 109.72. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 first. Break will bring deeper fall to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46). On the upside, above 108.86 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.