GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s rise from 126.54 accelerated to as high as 147.95 last week and took out medium term trend line resistance decisively. As a temporary top was formed after subsequent retreat. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Downside should be contained above 142.47 support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 147.95 will target 148.87 structural resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. Rejection from there will extend long term range trading. Decisive break of 156.69 will carry long term bullish implications.

In the longer term picture, in spite of the current strong rally, there is no confirmation of long term bullish reversal yet. Focus is now on 156.59 key resistance. As long as it holds, another decline through 122.75 could still be seen. But firm break of 156.69 should at least bring further rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93.