EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged higher to 121.01 last week but reversed from there. Recovery from 119.24 should have completed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 119.24 support first. Break will target 100% projection of 121.46 to 119.24 from 121.01 at 118.79. On the upside, break of 121.01 will bring retest of 121.46 instead .

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 125.14) to limit upside. Break of 117.07 support will be an early sign of resumption of down trend from 137.49 through 115.86 low.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.72), this is the preferred case.