EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded strong to 1.1116 last week but quickly reversed from there. Near term outlook is mixed for now and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0981 will resume the decline from 1.1179 for retesting 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.1116 will bring a test on 1.1179 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1566) holds.