USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s break of 0.9978 resistance last week suggests that larger rise from 0.9659 might be ready to resume. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.0027 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9659 to 1.0027 from 0.9869 at 1.0095 next. On the downside, below 0.9980 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9659/1.0237. In any case, decisive break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall. Meanwhile, break of 0.9695 support will target 0.9541 support instead.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.