EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s breach of 120.68 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 119.24 is resuming. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 121.46 resistance first. Break will resume larger rally from 115.86 to 123.35 resistance next. On the downside, below 120.27 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But overall near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 119.11 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 125.14) to limit upside. Break of 117.07 support will be an early sign of resumption of down trend from 137.49 through 115.86 low.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.93), this is the preferred case.