AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7115; (P) 0.7164; (R1) 0.7256; More…

AUD/USD’s rally accelerates further to as high as 0.7250 so far today. The case for medium term reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and break of falling channel resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7314 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm the bullish case. However, rejection from 0.7314, followed by break of 0.7159 resistance turned support, will retain bearishness and turn focus back to 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed and bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 0.7467).