EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1289; (P) 1.1325; (R1) 1.1350; More….

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1302 continues today and focus is now on 1.1421 minor resistance. Decisive break there will indicate short term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after supported by 1.1300. In that case, consolidation pattern from 1.1300 could have started the third leg and further rise should be seen to 1.1621 resistance and above. But we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1814 to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.300 will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.