USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.92; (P) 112.24; (R1) 112.70; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.37 extends today. Breach of 112.88 resistance argues that corrective fall from 114.54 has completed earlier than expected, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 114.54.73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.19 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and will likely extend the fall from 114.54. IN that case, next target is 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. As such fall is seen as part of medium term correction, we’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.