GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 142.76 last week. The development confirmed completion of the rise from 139.88 at 149.77. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 142.59 support. Break there will bring retest of 139.88 low. On the upside, above 145.03 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).