EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s fall from 133.12 accelerated to as low as 126.63 last week. The break of 127.85 support confirmed completion of rebound fro 124.89 at 133.12. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retest 124.89 low. On the upside, above 128.44 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 130.20 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 133.12. Otherwise, near term outlook will now be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.