GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2770; (P) 1.2845; (R1) 1.2893; More…

GBP/USD falls to as low as 1.2776 so far today and breached 1.2784 support. Intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.2661 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, break of 1.2919 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.