EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY stayed in consolidation below 1.1492 last week but retreated was contained above 1.1368 minor support. Initial bias stays neutral with mildly bullish outlook. On the upside, above 1.1492 will extend the rebound from 1.1173 to 1.1713 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of whole fall from 1.2004 and target a test on this high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1368 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 zone again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.