EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP stayed in consolidation above 0.8722 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8847 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.8772 will target 0.8620 low first. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 0.9304. In that case, next target will be 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9097 at 0.8412. However, firm break of 0.8847 will indicate near term reversal and target 0.8994 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current development suggests that fall from 0.9303, as a down leg in the pattern, is still in progress. But in case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 0.8116 cluster support, 50% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9304 at 0.8120, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9097 will target 0.9304 resistance instead.

In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.