USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.51; (P) 111.88; (R1) 112.13; More..

USD/JPY recovers mildly after dropping to 111.62. But as long as 112.52 minor resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Current decline is seen as correcting whole rise from 104.62. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, above 112.52 minor resistance will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.