USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.49; (P) 113.79; (R1) 114.03; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 114.54 short term top extended lower and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 113.55 minor resistance will bring retest on 114.54 and 114.73 key resistance first. However, break of 112.94 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.