EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY gyrated lower last week and the breach of 130.86 resistance turned support argues that rise from 124.89 might be over. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 130.17). Break will bring deeper fall to 127.85 support and below. On the upside, break of 131.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 133.12 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY could have defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.