GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2927; (P) 1.2991; (R1) 1.3042; More…

GBP/USD lost some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 1.3115 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected in the pair to 1.2784 support. Firm break there will likely resume larger down trend from 1.4376 through 1.2661. Nonetheless, break of 1.3115 will argue that the choppy fall from 1.3297 has completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.