EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1552; (P) 1.1588; (R1) 1.1616; More…..

EUR/USD reaches as low as 1.1504 so far. Break of 1.1525 support confirms that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed with three waves up to 1.1814 already. Intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.1300 low first. On the upside, above 1.1623 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 1.1814 to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).