EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.6353 last week resumed by taking out 1.6051. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.6353 to 1.6051 from 1.6252 at 1.5950. But downside should be contained above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.5888) to bring rebound and then rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6252 will target a retest on 1.6353 first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.