USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF surged to as high as 0.9818 last week. The development confirmed near term reversal level. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.9866 key resistance level, 61.8% retracement of 1.0067 to 0.9541 at 0.9866. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.0067 high. On the downside, below 0.9736 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on 0.9866 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will suggests that pull back from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541. And larger rise from 0.9186 low is ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.0067 will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 0.9541 will extend the decline but we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low even in that case.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.