USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1.3081, USD/CAD reversed from there and dropped sharply. Initial bias is now on the downside for 1.2883 support this week. Based on current momentum, this support will likely be taken out. In that case, whole decline from 1.3385 should resume for 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2723 next. On the upside, break of 1.3081 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, deeper decline will now be mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level. As long as it holds, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.