EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1708; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1800; More…..

Intraday bias in EUR?USD remains neutral with focus on 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Break of 1.1723 minor support will suggest rejection by 1.1779 and would be in line with our original view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1525 support. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).