EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1721; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1792; More…..

EUR/USD’s really resumes after brief consolidation and breaks 1.1802 to as high as 1.1814 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958. On the downside, though, break of 1.1723 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1525 support instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).