EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8847 last week but staged a strong rebound from there. There development suggests that fall from 0.9097 has completed. More importantly, the corrective structure argues that larger rise from 0.8620 is not completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.9097 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8620 towards 0.9305 high. On the downside, break of 0.8936 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). At this point, there is no clear sign of range break out yet. And more corrective trading would continue. On the upside, in case of another rise, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.