GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY surged further to as high as 149.70 last week but retreated sharply from there. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. For now, further rise is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. Break of 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone. However, break of 145.67 will suggests that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.74) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.