GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3169; (P) 1.3233; (R1) 1.3335; More…

GBP/USD’s sharp fall suggests temporary topping at 1.3297 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3096 will indicate rejection from 1.3316 key fibonacci resistance. That would be in line with our original view. In that case, corrective rebound from 1.2661 could have completed and intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2784 support. However, decisive break of 1.3315 will dampen our view and extend the rebound to next fibonacci level at 1.3721 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.