EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1744; (R1) 1.1819; More…..

Focus in EUR/USD remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 key resistance level. Rejection from 1.1779 and break of 1.1649 minor support will indicate that corrective rise from 1.1300 has completed. That will be in line with our original view and turn bias to the downside for 1.1525 support for confirmation. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958 before completion.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).