USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s breach of 0.9640 last week suggests that larger decline from 1.0067 is resuming. Further fall is expected this week as long as 0.9688 minor resistance holds. The pair may now target 0.9523 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 0.9688 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.9757 resistance will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 0.9866 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.