EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged higher to 131.10 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As 130.86 resistance was breached, rise from 124.89 should have resumed. Above 131.10 will target 131.97 resistance and then key fibonacci resistance at 132.56. On the downside, break of 129.43 is needed to be the first signal of short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will now remain cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turned support, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) remains in favor to continue. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 124.61 at 132.56 will pave the way to retest 137.49 high. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 next.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.