USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.43; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.37/111.82 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 109.76 to retest 113.17 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But still, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.