GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2874; (P) 1.2951; (R1) 1.2995; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise in favor as long as 1.2784 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3042 will resume the rebound from 1.2661 and target 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165. However, as such rebound is seen as a correction, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to complete the corrective rise and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2784 will bring retest of 1.2661 low.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4099). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.