EUR/AUD’s rise extend last week and reached as high as 1.6288. The break of 1.6189 confirmed resumption of the up trend from 1.3624. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current rally would target 161.8% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587. On the downside, below 1.6121 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) has just resumed. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.