USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9640 last week but couldn’t sustained below 161.8% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9656. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9766 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish for deeper decline. Break of 0.9640 will target 200% projection at 0.8579 next. Though, break of 0.9766 will indicate near term reversal and target 0.9866 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.