EUR/AUD’s rally extended last week and reached as high as 1.6159. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high. Upside could be limited there on initial attempt to bring consolidation. But break of 1.5983 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.6216 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.6596, which is close to another key resistance level at 1.6587.
In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.