USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 0.9651 last week and the development argues that whole rise from 0.9186 has completed at 1.0067 already. A temporary low is in place after hitting 161.8% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9656. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9775 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.9651 will target 200% projection at 0.8579 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.