USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.53; (R1) 111.98; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 could have completed at 111.82 already. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 109.76 low. For now, we’d still expect 109.36/76 key support to hold and bring rebound. But decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 111.13 will turn bias back to the upside for 111.82. Break there will revive the bullish case and target a retest on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.