USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.53; (R1) 111.98; More…

USD/JPY retreats notably after hitting 111.82 and with 4 hour MACD crossed below signa line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. We’re holding on to the bullish case as long as 110.93 minor support holds. That is, correction from 113.17 should have completed at 109.76 already. On the upside, above 111.82 will target 112.14 resistance first. Break there should bring retest of 113.17 high. On the downside, however, break of 110.93 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.