USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2887; (P) 1.2924; (R1) 1.2947; More…

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2981 minor resistance suggests that a short term bottom could be formed at 1.2886, just ahead of 1.2879 fibonacci level. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for recovery towards near term channel resistance (now at 1.3118). But break of 1.3173 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the choppy fall from 1.3385. Otherwise, out will remain cautiously bearish for another fall.

In the bigger picture, the break of channel support (now at 1.2988), argues that rise from 1.2246, as well as that from 1.2061, has completed at 1.3385. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879. Decisive break there will affirm the case of medium term reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below. That will also put key long term support at 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 into focus. On the upside, break of 1.3173 resistance will revive the bullish case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above.