USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9773; (P) 0.9810; (R1) 0.9832; More…..

USD/CHF’s decline accelerates to as low as 0.9751 so far today and breaks 100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9780 decisively. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724. For now, we’d expect strong support from 0.9724 to contain downside and bring rebound. But, break of 0.9865 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor even in case of recovery. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9724 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 will at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518 before completion.