USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9808; (P) 0.9837; (R1) 0.9863; More….

USD/CHF is still bounded in tight range above 0.9807 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.9889 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish for deeper fall. On the downside, below 0.9807 will target 100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9780 and possibly below. As current decline is seen as the third leg of consolidation from 1.0056, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9889 will turn bias to the upside for 0.9981 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 1.0067 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.