EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD surges to as high as 1.1594 last week and the break of 1.5886/8 resistance indicate resumption of whole rise from 1.5271. A temporary top is in place at 1.5945 and thus, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation. Downside of retreat should be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5751) to bring rise resumption. Above 1.5945 will target 61.8% projection of 1.5271 to 1.5886 from 1.5601 at 1.5981 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6216, which is close to 1.6189 high.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew strong support from 55 week EMA and rebounded. And the development argues that medium term rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6189 will target a test on 1.6587 (2015 high). On the downside, break of 1.5601 support will now be the first sign of medium term reversal, and will bring a test on 1.5271 key support for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.