USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 0.9807 last week and the development suggests that consolidation from 1.0056 is extending with fall from 1.0067 as the third leg. With a temporary low in place at 0.9807, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.9807 will target 100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9780 and possibly below. But, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9889 will turn bias to the upside for 0.9981 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 1.0067 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.