GBP/JPY’s rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 139.88. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 144.85). On the downside, however, below 141.32 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound. And larger down trend will likely resume for 139.29/47 key support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. But the downside acceleration makes this view shaky. Focus will be on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).
In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 152.88) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.