USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9818; (P) 0.9871; (R1) 0.9900; More….

USD/CHF’s decline accelerates today and reaches as low as 0.9807 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.9780 and possibly below. But fall from 1.0067 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.0056. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, 0.9852 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 0.9981 resistance is needed to confirm completion of fall from 1.0067. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.