USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2975; (P) 1.3011; (R1) 1.3035; More…

A temporary low is in place at 1.2986 and intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first. At this point, another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.3091 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.2961, and the medium term channel support will resume fall from 1.3385 and carries larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 1.3091 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3173 resistance. Break there will indicate completion of fall from 1.3385 and turn outlook bullish again.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2978) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 first. Sustained break will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below.