USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3173 last week but failed to break near term falling channel and dropped sharply. Initial bias is neutral this week first with focus on 1.3049 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of rebound from 1.2961. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support. Sustained break there will carry lower bearish implication and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.3173 will revive the bullish case of near term reversal and target 1.3289 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2965) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.