EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1519; (P) 1.1539; (R1) 1.1551; More…

EUR/CHF’s decline from 1.1713 resumes by taking out 1.1489/ after brief recovery. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 1.1478 support will confirm our bearish view. That is corrective rebound from 1.1366 has completed at 1.1713. And, larger fall from 1.2004 is resuming. In that case, retest of 1.1366 should be seen next. On the upside, break of 1.1556 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.